Comparing the Determinants of Western and Chinese Development Finance Flows to Africa

Comparing the Determinants of Western and Chinese Development Finance Flows to Africa
David Landry
CARI Working Paper and Policy Brief, décembre 2018


These papers by David G. Landry explore whether various institutional indicators among African countries impact their development finance from China and Western countries differently. This research is the first to explicitly compare the determinants of the value of Chinese and Western development finance received by other countries. These papers find that bilateral trade relations and UN voting alignment have a stronger impact on China’s development finance than that of Western countries. They also find that institutional quality plays a much stronger role in predicting Western development finance than that of China, as China appears to disregard institutional quality in its allocation of development finance.

Download the full working paper here.

Download the full policy brief here .


La conclusion la plus intéressante de cette étude est donnée pas cette phrase (page 16 du Working paper) :

This paper finds that bilateral trade relations and UN voting alignment have a vastly stronger impact on China's development finance than that of western countries, and that China allocates significantly more development finance than the west to richer African countries. Put simply, China appears to prioritize its commercial partners and the countries with which it is more politically aligned when allocating development finance in Africa.

Cette remarque confirme l'analyse de Johanna Malm (voir Chinese development finance vs IMF's public debt norm  et Chinese development finance, IMF's norm and DR Congo ).

Notons aussi cette autre conclusion qui est cohérente avec la précédente :

Rather than allocating more development finance to countries with worse institutional outcomes, it appears that China simply disregards institutional quality in its allocation of development finance (in line with its noninterference principle).

Cette remarque reconvertit le principe de non-ingérence 不干涉内政 en un simple principe commercial : un bon commerçant ne contrarie pas ses clients.


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